New Mexico State vs Wisconsin Odds
There is no way around this. It’s one of the biggest mismatches we’ll see this week, but that doesn’t mean there isn’t value in the game.
The New Mexico State Aggies are one of the worst teams in the nation, as they rank 128th in our Action Network power ratings. They haven’t done much to justify their confidence, as they are 0-3 and have been eliminated by Minnesota.
Now they’ll be lined up against another Big Ten foe, but this game is a step up in the competition.
As for the Badgers, they could very well take their frustration out on the Aggies after they got upset as 17.5-point favorites last week against Washington State.
The upset was peculiar, as Washington State was passed 401 to 253 in the total yardage department. Timely turnovers made the difference, but you can be sure the Badgers will handle the football better this week.
The Aggies have had their fair share of offensive struggles so far, and that can be said lightly. They come into this game averaging just 8.3 points per game and 235.7 total yards per game. These averages are good for 126th and 121st, respectively.
We’re going to see the Aggies keep the ball on the ground most of the time, and they have a running back tandem led by quarterback Diego Pavia.
Pavia has been pretty explosive on the ground, averaging 5.2 yards per carry and scoring two of the team’s three touchdowns this year.
The Aggies backfield is going to have a long day, though, as the Badgers have been very solid against the rush. They rank sixth in rushing pass rate allowed and first in defensive finishing drives. So if New Mexico State does actually start, don’t expect it to end with points.
As for the passing attack, we can’t expect much either. The Aggies used two quarterbacks, and neither had much success. As a result, they rank 127th in pass completion rate and 121st in offensive finishing drives.
On the other side, second-year running back Braelon Allen is expected to be the star of the show. The Badgers are running the ball 63% of the time and Allen has had 43% of rush attempts so far.
He also managed to do a lot of damage with those carries, as he averaged seven yards per carry over the course of the season.
The teams have already pulverized the Aggies on the ground, as they rank 96th in yards per rush allowed and 103rd in rushing yards per game allowed. It also doesn’t help that they’re massively outmatched in the trenches, with their 115th ranking in defensive yards.
Wisconsin should be able to move the ball around at will and score at almost any opportunity that comes their way. However, what plays in our angle is his style and his tempo.
We know the Badgers are going to keep the ball on the ground almost exclusively, but they’re also very slow when it comes to throwing plays. The Badgers are 130th in plays per second, and the Aggies aren’t much faster, ranking 108th.
Analysis of the game between New Mexico State and Wisconsin
Toggle the drop-down menus below to hide or show the statistical correspondence between the state of New Mexico and Wisconsin:
New Mexico State Offense Against Wisconsin Defense
Wisconsin offense against New Mexico State’s defense
Pace of play / Other
|SP+ special teams||131||78|
|Seconds per game||28.8 (109)||31.7 (130)|
|Peak rate||54.8% (55)||63.3% (19)|
Data via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD), FootballOutsiders, PS+, Focus on professional footballand SportSource Analytics.
New Mexico State vs. Wisconsin Betting Picks
I expect this game to be a lot like New Mexico State’s game against Minnesota. Wisconsin has a very similar profile, except it may have even more success on the court.
However, the good thing is that the Badgers are going to dominate possession time and shorten this game while racking up points along the way.
Plus, the Aggies will also be slugs when they get the ball, so they make the perfect pair with the Badgers to help keep this game under.
Wisconsin could even cover this massive spread and stay under the total, as the state of New Mexico will likely be left out.
Take: Under 46 or better
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