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How far will rain showers infiltrate inland?

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The bottom line

Monday was beautiful! The rest of the week, not so much.

A blocked frontal border will float just southeast of New Jersey for the next three days. Areas of low pressure – small systems of storms – will move along this front. We must therefore keep a persistent chance of showers in the forecast. If that front wiggles closer to the coast, we get wet. If he walks away, we don’t.

This “movement factor” makes forecasts quite uncertain. Unfortunately, I cannot give a definitive answer to the question posed in the title. So, instead, we’ll look at the “luck” of the rain. I cannot be more specific about the timing and geography of the raindrops – other than to say it will be very limited.

Meanwhile, humidity levels remain comfortable. And due to cloud cover and rain, high temperatures will remain well below normal for early August.

But if you fancy a return to the summer heat and humidity, you won’t have to wait long. Our next heat wave will likely start by the end of the coming weekend. And it will probably last all of the next week.

Tuesday

The clouds have returned. It will be mostly cloudy to overcast throughout the state. At the very least, you will see a persistent layer of high clouds obscuring the sun throughout the day.

The best chance of showers and downpours will be in southern Jersey and along the Jersey Shore from around noon through Tuesday afternoon. The risk of convective activity, thunderstorms and severe weather is very low – we only look at scattered raindrops (if this is the case).

During this time, the high temperatures will only reach the upper 70s. It will be the 7th day in a row with temperatures well below normal.

JERSEY SHORE REPORT: Tuesday August 3, 2021

Tuesday night seems cloudy, but dry and comfortable. Low temperatures will dip into the lower to mid 60s. The 50s are possible in the coolest corners of the state.

Wednesday

Very similar to Tuesday. The latest model predictions, however, suggest the chances of rain will be even lower.

Look for significant cloud cover and maybe a few coastal showers. The high temperatures will not reach again until the upper 70s.

Dew points will push up in the 60s. It’s sticky, but not scorching. And that’s pretty much where humidity levels will stay for the rest of the week.

Thursday

A day of change. And the forecast has changed, too, for the better.

I previously thought Thursday would be our best chance of widespread rain. And we’re not quite out of the woods for such a result, with another batch of healthy showers and even thunderstorms possible. But the majority of guide models continue to paint mostly dry weather statewide.

Finally, the sky will clear up at the end of the day on Thursday. And as long as that happens in the afternoon, the high temperatures will collide with the lower 80s. In other words, Thursday should turn into a beautiful day.

Friday

Back to a more typical summer weather. Friday is shaping up to be good. Usually sunny, dry and warm in season. Highs reach the mid-1980s to close the work week.

Extended forecast

There are two questions regarding the weekend forecast: how hot it is and how humid it is.

The GFS model shows a downpour or thunderstorm on Saturday, then a dry Sunday. High temperatures climb from the upper 80s to the lower 90s.

Meanwhile, the Euro model favors showers and thunderstorms on Sundays only. It’s also the hottest fix, with highs in the lower 90s on Saturday and in the lower 90s on Sunday.

We’ll see how it goes. One thing is certain: Next the week promises to be hot. We will likely see a long period of heat and humidity throughout the week. This heat wave (streak of over 90 degrees somewhere in NJ) will likely last 7 or 8 days in total. Hope your air conditioners are ready for a workout!

NJ WEATHER CENTER: your forecasts over 5 days and more

Dan Zarrow is chief meteorologist for Townsquare Media New Jersey. Follow him on Facebook or Twitter for the latest real-time weather forecasts and updates.

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